Evaluación de técnicas de análisis multicriterio para la toma de decisión y su consideración en la evaluación financiera de sistemas híbridos de generación de energía
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Fecha
2012-06-24
Autores
Díaz Chaviano, Lainer Javier
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Editor
Universidad Central "Marta Abreu" de la Villas
Resumen
Esta investigación forma parte del proyecto RESURL que pretende dar continuidad
a investigaciones anteriores desarrolladas en el Centro de Estudios de
Tecnologías Energéticas Renovables (CETER). En él se aborda el uso de la
energía renovable como una necesidad cubana para continuar llevando la
electrificación a zonas rurales y de difícil acceso, aspecto este que se encuentra
contemplado en los Lineamientos de la Política Económica y Social del Partido y la
Revolución, aprobados en el 6to Congreso del Partido Comunista de Cuba (PCC).
Se realiza un estudio de los modelos multicriterios para la toma de decisiones y su
utilización al realizar la evaluación económica y financiera de los sistemas híbridos
de generación de energía, dada las características y diversidad de factores a tener
en cuenta en estos sistemas para su selección. Permiten el análisis de elementos
económicos, sociales, naturales, humanos y físicos acordes a las particularidades
de las comunidades donde se van a implementar. Se propone como elemento
novedoso utilizar dentro del programa SURE, creado con el objetivo de facilitar la
toma de decisiones en proyectos de energización rural, el modelo multicriterio
PROMETHE el cual permite la sobreclasificación de criterios lo que posibilita el
análisis de estos dentro de las alternativas tecnológicas de los sistemas híbridos
que se evalúen, optimizando y desarrollando con mayor profundidad el análisis de
sensibilidad.
This paper is part of the RESURL, it intends to follow up previous researches developed at the Renewable Energy Technologies Center (CETER). It is addresses to the use of renewable energy as a cuban need to continue taking electrification to rural areas of difficult access, something that is written in the lineamientos of the economic and social policy of the Cuba Communist Party and of the Revolution, adopted in 6th Congress of the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC). A study was made taking into consideration different criteria models for getting to a decision-making, after the use of a financial and economic evaluation of combine power generation systems, due to the characteristics and various factors to consider in these systems for selection. This paper also allows the analysis of economic factors, social, natural, human and physical according to the characteristics of the communities where they are going to be used. It is proposed as a new element within the SURE program, created to facilitate decision-making in rural electrification projects the different criteria used by the PROMETHE model which allows the overrating of criteria which enables the analysis of these alternative technologies within combine systems are evaluated, optimizing and developing a deeper sensitivity analysis.
This paper is part of the RESURL, it intends to follow up previous researches developed at the Renewable Energy Technologies Center (CETER). It is addresses to the use of renewable energy as a cuban need to continue taking electrification to rural areas of difficult access, something that is written in the lineamientos of the economic and social policy of the Cuba Communist Party and of the Revolution, adopted in 6th Congress of the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC). A study was made taking into consideration different criteria models for getting to a decision-making, after the use of a financial and economic evaluation of combine power generation systems, due to the characteristics and various factors to consider in these systems for selection. This paper also allows the analysis of economic factors, social, natural, human and physical according to the characteristics of the communities where they are going to be used. It is proposed as a new element within the SURE program, created to facilitate decision-making in rural electrification projects the different criteria used by the PROMETHE model which allows the overrating of criteria which enables the analysis of these alternative technologies within combine systems are evaluated, optimizing and developing a deeper sensitivity analysis.
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Palabras clave
Evaluación Financiera, Análisis Multicriterio