Estudio del envejecimiento en la provincia de Villa Clara y sus efectos socioeconómicos. Incidencia de la Fecundidad.
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Llaneras Orozco, Yaneisy
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Universidad Central “Marta Abreu” de Las Villas
Resumen
La población, principal fuerza productiva de la sociedad y al propio tiempo, consumidora por excelencia de los medios y servicios producidos, exige la visión a mediano y largo plazo de las regularidades de su reproducción. Por ello es necesario analizar la influencia de las principales variables demográficas
determinante en el envejecimiento de la población de Villa Clara a través de análisis integral y econométrico de forma tal que permita a las instituciones trazarse políticas socioeconómicas adecuadas a esta realidad. El presente trabajo persigue ese objetivo.
Se definen los principales conceptos sobro población, demografía y desarrollo que faciliten el mejor entendimiento sobre el tema. Se expone el comportamiento de las principales variables demográficas que intervienen en el proceso de la Transición Demográfica, y la influencia de de estas en el proceso
de envejecimiento de la población. Utilizando la metodología de Box Jenkis se realiza un análisis econométrico, particularizando en la Fecundidad, y específicamente en la Tasa Global de Fecundidad. Se proponen algunas medidas que se deben tener en cuenta a la hora de seleccionar instrumentos de política socio económica ante el problema del envejecimiento demográfico
en nuestra provincia.
The population, main productive force of the society and at the own time, consumer par excellence of the means and produced services, it demands the vision to medium and I release term of the regularities of their reproduction. For it is necessary to analyze the influence of the decisive main demographic variables in the aging of the population of Villa Clara through integral analysis and econometric in a way that it allows to the institutions to be traced political socioeconomic appropriate to this reality. The present work pursues that objective. They are defined the main concepts I have more than enough population, demography and development that facilitate the best understanding on the topic. The behaviour of the main demographic variables is exposed that intervene in the process of the Demographic Transition, and the influence of these in the process of the population's aging. Using the methodology of Box Jenkis is carried out an analysis econometric, particularizing in the Fecundity, and specifically in the Global Rate of Fecundity. They intend some measures that should be kept in mind when selecting economic instruments of political partner before the problem of the demographic aging in our county.
The population, main productive force of the society and at the own time, consumer par excellence of the means and produced services, it demands the vision to medium and I release term of the regularities of their reproduction. For it is necessary to analyze the influence of the decisive main demographic variables in the aging of the population of Villa Clara through integral analysis and econometric in a way that it allows to the institutions to be traced political socioeconomic appropriate to this reality. The present work pursues that objective. They are defined the main concepts I have more than enough population, demography and development that facilitate the best understanding on the topic. The behaviour of the main demographic variables is exposed that intervene in the process of the Demographic Transition, and the influence of these in the process of the population's aging. Using the methodology of Box Jenkis is carried out an analysis econometric, particularizing in the Fecundity, and specifically in the Global Rate of Fecundity. They intend some measures that should be kept in mind when selecting economic instruments of political partner before the problem of the demographic aging in our county.